Malcolm McMillan (@McLateralFF)
The Lateral Editor
NFL Free Agency has come upwardly and... is however coming?
Yes , costless agency is however rattling much ongoing too teams are still edifice their rosters. They besides still have many talented players to remove from (particularly on defense). However , when the biggest story on a given 24-hour interval is RB Mike Davis signing with the Atlanta Falcons , it is prophylactic to say that the featherbrained flavour is slowing down.
So with the jeopardy of Super Bowl champion WR Antonio Brown ruining this article when he signs with mortal other than the Buccaneers , let's teach into the proficient stuff... costless agency losers!
These players are losers from a fantasy standpoint. If y'all are AJ Dillon , non having to seat on a ton of mileage during your rookie bargain is arguably a win , especially if y'all however teach an upgraded move from the 2020 season. But from a fantasy perspective , the re-signing of Aaron Jones would definitely cap your fantasy value for 2021 too counts equally a pregnant loss.
Finally , expectations were definitely taken into draw of piece of job organisation human relationship when selecting these players. For illustration , RB James Robinson (JAX) was ever expected to receive got some novel teammates inwards Jacksonville's RB room. Jacksonville adding RB Carlos Hyde did non modify my expectation that James Robinson volition live an RB2 inwards 2021 , then he did non brand the list.
RB Josh Jacobs (LV)
No bargain then far inwards costless agency has been to a greater extent than baffling than the Las Vegas Raiders signing RB Kenyan Drake for two-years too $14.5 million. Especially since the Raiders already had Jacobs , a top-10 fantasy RB too 2020 Pro Bowl choice on the roster. Did Jacobs receive got some issues? Sure. He exclusively produced 3.9 yards per endeavor , which was the bottom of the pack for NFL starters. But if that is the concern , y'all practise non convey inwards Kenyan Drake , who produced *checks notes* literally 0.1 Y/A more.
Drake says that the Raiders brought him inwards to live a "playmaker" too that he did non prioritize beingness a starter , but fifty-fifty equally a backup it is tough to logically projection a $14+ meg signing non taking to a greater extent than than Devontae Booker's 20% marketplace share on the the world from 2020 too farther capping Jacobs' already depression ceiling inwards the passing game. Especially when Drake saw 239 rushing attempts too 31 targets in 2020 equally a starter inwards Arizona too was a fantasy starter inwards his ain right. Therefore , Jacobs' days equally an RB1 are probable over , which a major loss for his fantasy value inwards 2021.
Then in i trial again , it is the Raiders. At this signal , anything is possible.
RB Kenyan Drake (LV)
The signing of Kenyan Drake did non exclusively wound Josh Jacobs , but it besides wound Kenyan Drake! The declaration for why Drake's fantasy value is taking a striking is essentially the same equally it is for Jacobs: at that topographic point but is non plenty piece of job to teach to a greater extent than or less for them to repeat their 2020 performances. The proficient intelligence for Drake fans is that spell the workload volition sure as shooting live lighter , at that topographic point is evidence that shows that NFL offenses tin back upwardly ii fantasy starters at RB. Washington , Cleveland , too Indianapolis all had ii RBs with top-24 finishes. Even Drake's quondam squad Arizona almost had ii fantasy starters inwards the backfield , with Drake finishing RB16 too Chase Edmonds finishing RB25 (just 0.5 points off of RB24 J.K. Dobbins [BAL]).
The bad intelligence is that none of those teams are the Raiders. In Gruden's electrical flow tenure equally caput bus , the most piece of job a backup RB has seen is DeAndre Washington's 24.7% marketplace portion on the the world inwards 2019 too Jalen Richard's 15.28% marketplace portion through the air inwards 2018. If y'all practise some math using those marketplace shares , Drake's 2020 grab charge per unit of measurement too Y/A , too Las Vegas' criminal offense last year , Drake would attain to a greater extent than or less 141 PPR points earlier TDs , too that number is heavily boosted past times using PPR format (45% of his points would come upwardly from receptions). Add inwards the fact that last year Las Vegas gave Jacobs' a 65.3% marketplace portion on attempts within the xx (a percent that exclusively grows the closer y'all teach to the goal line) , too the chances that Drake is anything beyond a fringe RB2/RB3 are incredibly small. That would stand upwardly for a major autumn for final year's RB16.
RB AJ Dillon (GB)
Despite using him equally an illustration inwards the introduction , Dillon almost did non brand this list. The Jamaal Williams move inwards this criminal offense is non insignificant , too Williams volition non live returning inwards 2021. In 2020 , Williams saw a 26.86% marketplace portion on the ground and exclusively 6.98% of the Packers targets. It would non live a stretch to projection a similar workload onto Dillon inwards 2021 , too fifty-fifty if he does non improve on those numbers he should however deal to live a fantasy-relevant RB3. An increased workload from Williams' 2021 portion could fifty-fifty render major value for fantasy managers willing to receive got a shot on the second-year RB.
Unfortunately , the fact that he went from potential starter to clear backup through the course of study of costless agency way he had to live included. Still , Dillon did improve his standing from 3rd on the depth nautical chart to minute on the depth nautical chart , too that may exactly live plenty to cushion the blow of losing a potential starting move inwards Green Bay.
TE Jonnu Smith (NE) too TE Hunter Henry (NE)
As if the tight end position was non already hard plenty to striking on , the Patriots went ahead too complicated things past times signing ii potential TE1s , thereby probable creating zero. Yes , people volition signal to the 2011 flavour when Rob Gronkowski too Aaron Hernadez finished equally TE1 too TE3 respectively , but practise y'all know what the target portion was for those two? 38.79% combined. Nearly four out of every 10 targets went to a TE for the Patriots that season. That is non happening again.
Need proof? The final flavour the Patriots had a TE1 on the roster was Gronkowski finishing TE2 inwards 2017 with a 17.98% target share. The adjacent twelvemonth , all New England TEs combined for exactly 14.57% target share. The next year? 8.86%. Last year? All New England TEs combined for just a 7.86% target share. Quite a autumn from 38.79%.
But perhaps Cam Newton tin feed the TE? Well the final fourth dimension that happened , quondam Carolina Panthers TE Greg Olsen needed a 23.33% target share inwards 2016 to complete TE3. This is significantly to a greater extent than than the less than vii percent of his targets Newton threw to his TEs final year. Even to attain a unmarried top-12 TE , he would probable demand to throw to either Smith or Henry 15.22% of the fourth dimension , which was the target portion that this year's TE12 Hunter Henry saw inwards 2020. That would stand upwardly for an exactly nether a 100% increment inwards the target portion compared to what Patriots TEs saw inwards 2020 , too that is exactly to attain a unmarried top-12 TE. To attain ii , Newton would probable demand to render his novel TEs with an over 30% target portion , a nearly 400% increase. That is but non happening based on whatsoever logical conclusions nosotros tin describe from the available data. It would take a literally historic season.
WR Will Fuller V (MIA)
Most of these players require a lot of analysis equally to why they are early on costless agent losers from a fantasy perspective. Will Fuller V is non i of those players.
Why? Fuller's novel QB Tua Tagovailoa is a downgrade from Deshaun Watson. Even if Tua breaks out adjacent twelvemonth , it is highly unlikely he volition live equally proficient equally Deshaun Watson , who was top-10 inwards exactly close every statistical category listed on Pro Football Reference. Seriously , teach look. It is absurd how proficient Watson was inwards 2020. And different Kenny Golladay , who was non playing with QB Matthew Stafford inwards 2021 no affair what , the expectation was that Fuller could truly render to play amongst Watson inwards 2021 (at to the lowest degree earlier the sexual onset allegations against Watson).
Will Fuller V scored 17.2 PPG inwards 2020 , proficient for WR6 inwards PPG (WR32 overall). From Week 6 on , which is when Tua got the showtime inwards Miami , the best Dolphins WR inwards fantasy was Devante Parker... at WR57. Yikes. For similar a shot , it exactly seems impossible to practise anything other than downgrade Will Fuller V , fifty-fifty though he is a rattling probable upgrade for Miami's WR corps.
D.J. Chark (JAX) or Laviska Shenault Jr. (JAX)
This i is tricky because correct similar a shot nosotros practise non know which of these ii WRs is going to live probable starter QB Trevor Lawrence's favored target. In fact , it could live neither of them. Instead , it could live costless agent signing WR Marvin Jones , Jr. , who the Jags brought inwards on a two-year deal final week.
Jones' arrival is actually the outcome here. The Jaguars tin probable back upwardly ii fantasy-relevant WRs , too exactly equally probable cannot back upwardly three. Only 3 teams inwards 2020 had 3 top-48 WRs in PPR format. The Cowboys made the cutting with Michael Gallup finishing at WR38 to bring together Amari Cooper too CeeDee Lamb (both top-24) and the Carolina Panthers too Pittsburgh Steelers each had a trio of top-24 WRs.
But that is it. That is the entire list. That is a lot of actually proficient offenses that could non deal to back upwardly 3 fantasy-relevant WRs. The twelvemonth earlier was no different. In 2019 , exclusively the Jaguars too the Giants had 3 top-48 WRs each , too of those vi WRs exclusively D.J. Chark (WR17) finished amend than WR37. Betting on Jacksonville to rhythm out the odds this twelvemonth would live foolish , then await at to the lowest degree i of these immature WRs to receive got a downwardly twelvemonth inwards 2021.
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