 |
| (Photo Credit: 1000Logos.net) |
Can You Digg It? A illustration for Stefon Diggs every bit the WR1 inwards 2021.
Zach Crutcher (@ZackyNFL)
The Lateral Contributor
With Aaron Rodgers now staying inwards Green Bay nosotros stimulate got a clearer movie of the 2021 season. Especially regarding the 3 contenders for 2021's fantasy WR1. All 3 are elite WRs alongside superstar QBs , together with they were the 3 highest-scoring WRs concluding season. In 2020 , Green Bay WR Davante Adams finished atop the leaderboard , followed past times Kansas City WR Tyreek Hill inwards minute together with Buffalo's newly acquired WR Stefon Diggs inwards third. It may survive slow to hold off Davante Adams to repeat his surgical operation every bit the WR1 overall , but solely iv players stimulate got accomplished this feat inwards the past times 20 seasons. In PPR formats , the solely players to tape back-to-back WR1 overall seasons from 2001-2020 were: Marvin Harrison (2001-2002) , Andre Johnson (2008-2009) , Calvin Johnson (2011-2012) , together with Antonio Brown (who did it iv years inwards a row from 2014-2017). So if nosotros assume this historical tendency matters , ane squall that stands out is Stefon Diggs , who looks poised to soar fifty-fifty higher inwards 2021.
Let's start alongside around context on Diggs' 2020 season. Despite his ultimate success , the buzz going into the flavor was largely negative. A pop theory inwards fantasy is that WRs seem to struggle inwards their kickoff twelvemonth on a novel team. Learning a novel organization piece developing chemical scientific discipline alongside a novel QB tin survive hard for fifty-fifty the best WR , together with this theory became a mutual critique of Diggs going into his kickoff flavor inwards Buffalo alongside a nevertheless "raw" Josh Allen at QB. Brandon Gdula of numberFire fifty-fifty has an first-class article detailing just how elite WRs struggle when switching teams. "Half of the receivers nosotros nevertheless believe inwards plenty to accept within the top-16 at the seat stimulate got fallen at to the lowest degree 2 points shy inwards their PPR-point-per-game average inwards that kickoff twelvemonth alongside the novel team."
So it was a stupor when inwards 2020 , Diggs rhythm out the odds of regressing inwards twelvemonth ane on a novel team. In 2019 , Diggs scored 212.1 PPR points inwards xv games , expert for 14.1 PPR PPG , but inwards 2020 Diggs exploded for 328.6 PPR points inwards sixteen games (20.5 PPG). He too contributed towards a substantial improvement in Bills QB Josh Allen , every bit Allen seat upward an MVP-caliber flavor of 4 ,544 passing yards , 37 passing touchdowns , together with a career-best completion percentage in 2020.
The pro-case for Diggs strengthens every bit y'all examine how Diggs performed every bit he grew to a greater extent than comfortable alongside Allen. Remember , that the principal criticism of Diggs was that WRs on novel teams struggle due to a lack of chemical scientific discipline alongside their novel QB , together with chemical scientific discipline should create every bit the flavor moves on. So , theoretically , Diggs should stimulate got improved every bit the flavor progressed.
Turns out , that theory is correct! In the kickoff 8 games of 2020 , Diggs averaged 17.7 PPR PPG , clocking inwards at WR6 overall. But in Weeks 9-17 , he averaged an incredible 23.4 PPR PPG , the overall WR2 behind Davante Adams.
In 2020 Diggs led the entire league inwards targets , receptions , together with receiving yards. His 166 targets were 6 ahead of DeAndre Hopkins , who was the adjacent closest , together with his 127 receptions outpaced Hopkins past times 12. Diggs's 1 ,535 receiving yards were 119 yards to a greater extent than than fifty-fifty Travis Kelce could muster. The solely thing that Diggs was missing inwards 2020 was touchdowns , every bit he constitute the terminate zone solely 8 times inwards sixteen games. In comparing , Davante Adams scored eighteen touchdowns inwards fourteen games , together with Tyreek Hill averaged ane touchdown per game alongside xv touchdowns inwards xv games. With the chemical scientific discipline betwixt Diggs together with Allen increasing alongside every occur together with Buffalo's commitment to a modern pass-heavy criminal offense , it is highly logical that Diggs scores to a greater extent than than a mere 8 touchdowns inwards 2021.
Not solely is it logical , but at that spot is fifty-fifty evidence to back upward touchdown progression! As previously mentioned , Josh Allen threw for over 4 ,500 passing yards together with scored 37 times through the air. Only eight of those 37 touchdowns went to Diggs despite his 29.02% target part overall , together with 20.8% target part in the scarlet zone. In fact , at that spot were several Bills who constitute the end-zone despite their seemingly insignificant purpose inwards the offense. Five touchdowns went to backup , blocking-tight-ends Tyler Kroft (three) together with Lee Smith (two). Another v touchdowns went to Isaiah McKenzie , including around jet motion or jet sweeps designed to grab opposing defenses sleeping. Kroft , Smith , together with McKenzie combining for 10 touchdowns on solely 56 targets is a feat they are unlikely to repeat inwards 2021 (even if Kroft was nevertheless inwards Buffalo). But fifty-fifty if the outliers inwards the Bills' criminal offense nevertheless occur along to score inwards 2021 , Josh Allen throwing for to a greater extent than touchdowns inwards 2021 is a existent possibility. Last flavor Allen threw for a touchdown on "only" 6.5% of his passes. A flavor inwards which Allen approaches an 8% TD charge per unit of measurement would stimulate got a huge deport upon on Buffalo's occur catchers , together with if he exceeds this together with tin approach a genuinely elite 9.1% score like Aaron Rodgers inwards 2020 or 9% like Lamar Jackson inwards 2019 , the Bills' high-octane criminal offense volition erupt.
Diggs's ceiling should too produce goodness from the departure of John Brown. Diggs had success every bit a deep threat alongside the Vikings , thus he is already suited to stimulate got a larger purpose inwards the deeper areas of the plain this coming season. Being a deep threat is a bully way for receivers to rack upward the long touchdowns together with high receiving yard games that are needed to complete every bit the fantasy WR1.
Diggs's ceiling should too produce goodness from the departure of John Brown. Diggs had success every bit a deep threat alongside the Vikings , thus he is already suited to stimulate got a larger purpose inwards the deeper areas of the plain this coming season. Being a deep threat is a bully way for receivers to rack upward the long touchdowns together with high receiving yard games that are needed to complete every bit the fantasy WR1.
An elite talent like Diggs with high book together with elite efficiency has the potential to lap the plain if he heats upward inwards the deeper areas of the field. In 2020 (per RotoViz Stat Explorer) on throws of 15+ yards , Diggs had 20 receptions on twoscore targets for 479 receiving yards. In his to a greater extent than vertical purpose for the 2019 Vikings , Diggs caught 17 such passes on xxx targets for a massive 657 receiving yards. If Josh Allen tin occur along his tremendous increment every bit a quarterback , Diggs could encounter a furnish to ameliorate efficiency inwards the deeper areas of the field as well as a to a greater extent than consistent role.
Finally , Stefon Diggs is a highly efficient player. Using the RotoViz Stat Explorer nosotros tin encounter that Diggs has finished within the top-10 inwards damage of fantasy points over expectation 3 times inwards his five-year career. He has too ranked within the top 10 2 split times inwards damage of raw expected points , notably finishing kickoff overall inwards 2020 every bit well.
In summary , the illustration for an fifty-fifty higher ceiling for Stefon Diggs in 2021 is pretty straightforward. We stimulate got seen Diggs succeed inwards all areas of the plain , both earlier the grab together with afterward the grab , together with he too excels alongside elite volume. Diggs currently has a FantasyPros ADP of fourteen , WR3 overall , despite existence a ameliorate bet to score 300 or to a greater extent than PPR points than many of the running backs going ahead of him , together with arguably fifty-fifty the broad receivers every bit well. With is a clear path to 22+ PPR PPG , I currently stimulate got Stefon Diggs every bit my fifth best purpose instrumentalist overall inwards PPR formats. Even if he were to autumn curt of the WR1 overall , he is well-deserving of existence selected inwards the kickoff round.
Follow The Lateral on Twitter (@TheLateralFF)